Summit Success Rates
By Peak
Real statistics aggregated from park authority reports, guiding company disclosures, and mountaineering databases — so you can plan around facts, not folklore.
Why Success Rates Matter
#overviewMost guidebooks quote a single number — “Aconcagua has a 40% success rate” — without context. That figure means very different things depending on when you go, which route you take, and whether you are guided. This page disaggregates the data so you can see what actually drives outcomes.
How to read these numbers: Success is defined as reaching the summit. Turnaround decisions include weather holds, illness, and voluntary retreats. Rescue incidents are tracked separately. All rates are computed from climbers who obtained a legal permit.
Success Rate by Month
#timingThe summit window on Aconcagua is narrow. January sits at the statistical peak, but December offers comparable success with significantly fewer crowds.
October and March are transition months with fewer than 80 recorded attempts.
The January–February window accounts for 68% of all summit attempts. Climbers starting their summit bid in the first two weeks of January show a 7-point higher success rate than those departing in the final two weeks.
Success Rate by Route
#routesRoute selection is the single biggest variable under a climber’s control. The Normal Route’s high rate reflects both its lower technical demands and the greater support infrastructure along it.
Guided vs. Independent
#guidedGuided climbers summit at a meaningfully higher rate. Guides enforce acclimatization schedules, make conservative turnaround calls, and carry emergency equipment. Independent climbers who follow equivalent protocols show comparable outcomes.
- Enforced rest days reduce AMS incidents ~30%
- Real-time guide judgment on weather windows
- Rescue coordination support included
- Typical cost: $5,000–$11,000 all-in
- Flexible itinerary — but often misused
- Higher rate of premature summit bids
- Typical cost: $2,500–$4,000 all-in
- Evacuation costs not covered — insurance critical
Success Rate by Experience Level
#experienceExperience level is self-reported on permit applications. Numbers below cover Normal Route attempts only to control for route selection bias.
Most Common Turnaround Reasons
#turnaroundsFrom park ranger incident logs and permit exit interviews, 2015–2025, Normal Route.
Rescue Incident Frequency
#rescueAconcagua has a well-developed rescue infrastructure with helicopter access to 6,000m in favorable conditions. High-altitude rescue insurance is strongly advised.
Rescue incidents are 2.4× higher among independent climbers than guided parties, and 3.1× higher among first-time high-altitude climbers.
Historical Success Rate Trend (1995–2025)
#trendA slow but measurable decline in overall success rates since 2010, correlating with shorter reliable weather windows, glacier recession on the Polish Glacier route, and increased permit holder volume.
The 5-year rolling average has declined from 46% (2005–2009) to 38% (2020–2024). Climate modelling suggests continued glacier recession through 2035.