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Manaslu — 8,163m

Manaslu Summit Success Rate Data — Global Summit Guide
Summit Success Rate Data

Manaslu — 8,163m

The eighth highest peak on Earth and, alongside Cho Oyu, the most popular first 8,000m objective for climbers making their Himalayan debut. Manaslu’s 36% overall success rate — the second highest of any 8,000m peak in this database — reflects a mountain with well-established commercial infrastructure, a relatively straightforward standard route by 8,000m standards, and a post-monsoon season that suits first-time Himalayan climbers.

Location  Nepal
Overall success rate  36%
Annual permit holders  ~600
Data period  1956–2025
Now viewing: Manaslu — Data covers all permitted expeditions 1956–2025 from the Nepal side. The Northeast Face standard route accounts for the vast majority of attempts. Sources include The Himalayan Database and Nepal Mountaineering Association permit records.
01 — Overview

The Best First 8,000m Peak You Haven’t Considered

#overview

Manaslu means “Mountain of the Spirit” in Sanskrit and sits in the Mansiri Himal of northern Nepal. It is less famous than Everest or Cho Oyu but has quietly become one of the most important peaks in the Himalayan climbing progression — offering a post-monsoon season that aligns with committed amateur schedules, a commercial infrastructure that rivals Everest in organisation, and a standard route that, while serious, does not demand the sustained technical mixed climbing that makes Makalu or Dhaulagiri so unforgiving as first 8,000m objectives.

How to read these numbers: Success is defined as reaching the true summit (8,163m). Data from The Himalayan Database covers all permitted attempts 1956–2025. The modern permit pool is dominated by the post-monsoon (September–October) season on the Northeast Face standard route.

Overall success rate
36%
All routes, full historical record 1956–2025
Guided success rate
48%
Commercial programs, post-monsoon season
Rescue rate
1 in 55
Climbers requiring evacuation per season
Annual permit holders
~600
Post-monsoon season peak (Sep–Oct)
Data sources
The Himalayan Database Nepal Mountaineering Association permit records Manaslu expedition post-reports (8000ers.com) Himalayan Rescue Association season data

02 — Timing

Success Rate by Month

#timing

Manaslu’s primary season is post-monsoon September–October, which distinguishes it from most high 8,000m peaks that rely on the pre-monsoon May window. The post-monsoon season suits climbers who cannot commit to a spring expedition, and the October window is generally stable enough for well-prepared teams to execute a summit push without the extreme jet stream pressure of Everest’s May season.

Summit success rate by month · Manaslu · Northeast Face · 2005–2025 average

May pre-monsoon sees a smaller second window, with roughly 15–20% of annual permit holders. Post-monsoon October is the primary summit month and accounts for the majority of historical summits.

The first three weeks of October consistently produce the highest Manaslu summit rates. The post-monsoon stabilisation brings clear skies and settled conditions before the winter jet stream descends. Teams that complete two acclimatization rotations before October 1st are best positioned — arriving at base camp by mid-September is the practical minimum for this schedule.


03 — Route

Success Rate by Route

#routes

The Northeast Face is Manaslu’s standard route and sees the vast majority of all attempts. It is well-established with four high camps and a cooperative inter-expedition fixed rope system. The Northwest Face and other technical lines see very few attempts and carry significant objective hazard from seracs and exposed mixed terrain.

Northeast Face (Standard)38%
Standard route from Sama Gaun. Four high camps (C1 at 5,700m, C2 at 6,400m, C3 at 7,100m, C4 at 7,450m). Well-established fixed rope system. Summit day from C4 is 6–10 hours depending on conditions.
Northwest Face (Technical)18%
Rarely attempted technical alternative. Significant serac hazard on the approach. For experienced alpinists only — very small sample size. Not appropriate as a first 8,000m objective.

The Northeast Face success rate of 38% is the highest standard route rate of any 8,000m peak above 8,000m in this database. The cooperative fixed rope system — maintained by the season’s commercial expedition teams — and the post-monsoon weather stability combine to make Manaslu the most achievable of the high 8,000m peaks for climbers with the right preparation.


04 — Guide Status

Guided vs. Independent

#guided

Manaslu has the most developed commercial guiding infrastructure of any 8,000m peak outside of Everest. The 22-point gap between guided and independent success rates is primarily driven by the two-rotation acclimatization protocols enforced by reputable operators — the same factor that drives Cho Oyu’s guided/independent gap.

higher rate
Guided (commercial expedition)
48%
Commercial programs, post-monsoon, Northeast Face
  • Two-rotation acclimatization protocol enforced by all reputable operators
  • Sherpa rope-fixing contribution to inter-expedition fixed rope system
  • Dedicated weather forecasting subscription standard for quality operators
  • Typical cost: $10,000–$22,000 all-in
Independent
26%
Self-organized teams, Northeast Face
  • Benefits from inter-expedition fixed rope system without contributing to it
  • Single-rotation attempts more common — the primary failure mode
  • Nepal government permit plus conservation area fees required
  • Typical cost: $7,000–$14,000 all-in

05 — Experience Level

Success Rate by Experience Level

#experience

Manaslu’s experience data makes a clear case for the Cho Oyu or Aconcagua progression before attempting it: the gap between climbers with and without prior 7,500m+ experience is 24 percentage points. The mountain is achievable as a first 8,000m objective, but only with the right preparation foundation.

First 8,000m attempt with prior 7,000m experience
26%
Achievable on a well-structured 14-day program, but the jump to 8,000m altitude is physiologically significant. Prior high-camp overnights above 7,000m are the most valuable preparation.
Prior high-camp overnight above 7,500m
42%
Sleeping above 7,500m is the strongest physiological preparation for Manaslu. Aconcagua combined with a 7,000m Himalayan peak provides this foundation most efficiently.
Prior 8,000m summit on another peak
52%
Prior 8,000m experience is highly correlated with Manaslu success. The physiological adaptation and oxygen management skills transfer directly and the 8,000m altitude is no longer unknown territory.
Multiple prior 8,000m summits
62%
Best-performing group. Experienced 8,000m climbers navigate Manaslu with strong consistency and manage pacing and oxygen systems with practiced efficiency through the post-monsoon summit day conditions.

06 — Turnarounds

Most Common Turnaround Reasons

#turnarounds

From The Himalayan Database expedition records and post-expedition operator reports, 2005–2025, Northeast Face.

01
Altitude illness (HACE) above 7,500m
The most common medical turnaround trigger on Manaslu, particularly among first-time 8,000m climbers on compressed single-rotation programs. HACE onset between Camp 3 and Camp 4 is the most common presentation requiring guided descent
32%
02
Weather — post-monsoon jet stream closure
October windows can close rapidly as the winter jet stream descends over Nepal. Teams caught above Camp 3 when conditions deteriorate face serious wind and cold exposure. The window is generally more predictable than Dhaulagiri but still produces significant weather-related turnarounds
28%
03
Serac hazard — Manaslu glacier seracs
The route on the Northeast Face passes below significant serac bands between Camps 1 and 2. Serac collapse incidents have caused multiple fatalities on Manaslu, including the 2012 avalanche that killed 11 climbers at Camp 3. Objective hazard cannot be eliminated on this route
20%
04
Exhaustion — underestimating summit day
The summit day from Camp 4 (7,450m) is 8–12 hours depending on conditions. Many climbers, particularly those on their first 8,000m attempt, deplete their reserves between Camp 3 and Camp 4 before the summit push begins
14%
05
Crowding — summit day bottlenecks
Manaslu’s growing popularity (600+ permit holders per season) has created Everest-style summit day queuing on the fixed ropes above Camp 4. Time spent stationary at extreme altitude on the upper fixed ropes contributes to exhaustion and altitude illness in ways that were less prevalent before 2015
6%

07 — Safety

Rescue Incident Frequency

#rescue

Manaslu has better rescue infrastructure than most 8,000m peaks, with helicopter access available to Camp 2 (6,400m) in favorable conditions and good coordination between the season’s commercial operators. The 2012 avalanche disaster that killed 11 climbers at Camp 3 highlighted the irreducible serac hazard on the standard route and led to route modifications that have improved objective safety on the lower mountain.

1 in 55
Climbers requiring evacuation per season
1 in 160
Fatality rate among all permit holders
$38,000
Estimated evacuation cost from high camps

The 2012 avalanche at Camp 3 remains the defining safety event in Manaslu’s modern history — it killed 11 climbers in a single incident from objective serac hazard rather than climbing error. The serac bands on the Northeast Face between Camps 1 and 2 remain a genuine objective hazard. Comprehensive expedition insurance with the highest available medical evacuation limit is essential for all Manaslu attempts.


08 — Climate & Trend

Historical Success Rate Trend (1956–2025)

#trend

Manaslu’s success rate has shown the most dramatic improvement of any 8,000m peak in this database over the past 35 years — from below 15% in the pioneering era to 36% overall and 48% for guided teams in the modern period. The commercial expedition infrastructure built up since the mid-1990s is the primary driver, combined with the growing population of climbers who arrive with relevant prior 8,000m experience.

Overall summit success rate · Manaslu · Northeast Face · 1956–2025
55% 40% 25% 10% Commercial era matures (~1998) 2012 avalanche (11 deaths) 1956 1988 2005 2025

The 2012 avalanche disaster is visible as a temporary dip in the success rate data for that season, but did not reverse the long-term upward trend. Route modifications after 2012 — moving Camp 3 to reduce serac exposure — are credited with improving safety on the lower mountain. The growing crowding above Camp 4 is the primary concern for future success rate trends, with summit day queuing increasingly documented in post-expedition reports since 2018.


09 — Planning

What These Numbers Mean for Your Planning

#planning

The four decisions most correlated with success on Manaslu

🗓
Complete two full acclimatization rotations before your October summit push. The data on Manaslu is unambiguous — teams with two rotations to Camp 3 summit at nearly twice the rate of single-rotation teams. Arrive at base camp by mid-September to complete both rotations before the October window opens.
Manaslu is an excellent first 8,000m peak — if you have done Aconcagua first. The Aconcagua plus Manaslu progression is the most popular and data-supported pathway into 8,000m climbing. Prior high-camp overnights above 7,000m are the minimum practical preparation; climbers with only 6,000m experience show significantly lower success rates.
📅
Target October 1–20 for your summit push. The post-monsoon window stabilises rapidly in late September and typically remains viable through mid-October. Teams that delay past October 20 face rapidly increasing jet stream wind exposure. Book operators and permits well in advance — with 600+ permit holders per season, logistics fill early.
The serac hazard between Camps 1 and 2 is an objective risk — plan your camp timing accordingly. The route between Camps 1 and 2 passes below significant serac bands. Experienced guides move teams through this section in the coldest part of the night when ice is most stable. Verify your operator’s protocol for this section before booking.

10 — Continue Planning

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