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Cho Oyu — 8,188m

Cho Oyu Summit Success Rate Data — Global Summit Guide
Summit Success Rate Data

Cho Oyu — 8,188m

The sixth highest peak on Earth and the most popular first 8,000m objective. Cho Oyu’s 42% overall success rate — the highest of any 8,000m peak in this database — reflects its relatively non-technical standard route, well-established Tibet-side logistics, and the strong self-selection of climbers who choose it specifically as a stepping stone. But “accessible” at 8,000m still means extreme altitude, and the data shows it.

Location  Nepal / Tibet
Overall success rate  42%
Annual permit holders  ~300
Data period  1990–2025
Now viewing: Cho Oyu — Data covers all permitted expeditions 1990–2025. The primary season is post-monsoon (September–October) from the Tibet side. Sources include The Himalayan Database and China Tibet Mountaineering Association records.
01 — Overview

Why Cho Oyu Is the Gateway 8,000m Peak

#overview

Cho Oyu means “Turquoise Goddess” in Tibetan and sits just 20km west of Everest, sharing its base camp plateau and benefiting from the same post-monsoon weather window. Its standard Northwest Face route is classified as the least technically demanding of the 8,000m peaks — but that description requires context. “Least demanding” at 8,000m still means extreme altitude, serious cold, and physiological demands that are non-linear above 7,500m. The 42% overall success rate — highest of any 8,000m peak — belongs to a population of climbers who are typically more experienced and better prepared than average 8,000m permit holders.

How to read these numbers: Success is defined as reaching the true summit (8,188m). Data covers all permitted expeditions 1990–2025 from the Tibet side (primary route) and the Nepal side (rare). Pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons are both included, though post-monsoon accounts for over 90% of all attempts.

Overall success rate
42%
All routes, both seasons, 1990–2025
Guided success rate
55%
Commercial expedition programs, post-monsoon
Rescue rate
1 in 62
Climbers requiring assisted rescue per season
Annual permit holders
~300
Peak post-monsoon season (Sep–Oct)
Data sources
The Himalayan Database China Tibet Mountaineering Association Cho Oyu expedition post-reports (8000ers.com) Himalayan Rescue Association annual data

02 — Timing

Success Rate by Month

#timing

Cho Oyu’s primary season is post-monsoon, with the October window producing the highest historical success rates. The post-monsoon weather pattern on the Tibetan plateau is more predictable than the pre-monsoon Himalayan jet stream window that Everest climbers work with — a key reason Cho Oyu is preferred as a first 8,000m objective.

Summit success rate by month · Cho Oyu · Northwest Face · 2000–2025 average

August represents the tail end of monsoon season with very limited attempts and unstable snow conditions. Pre-monsoon April–May sees fewer than 30 attempts per year — treat as indicative only.

October 1–20 consistently produces the highest Cho Oyu summit rates, aligning with post-monsoon stabilization and before the winter jet stream descends over Tibet. Teams that complete two full acclimatization rotations before their October summit push outperform those who attempt with a single rotation by approximately 18 percentage points — the largest acclimatization effect of any peak in this database.


03 — Route

Success Rate by Route

#routes

The Northwest Face is Cho Oyu’s standard route and accounts for nearly all attempts. The Southwest Pillar is a rarely-attempted technical alternative that attracts elite alpinists seeking a more demanding line on a less demanding peak. The success rate difference reflects both objective difficulty and climber self-selection.

Northwest Face (Standard)44%
The standard route from Tibet. Three established high camps (C1 at 6,400m, C2 at 7,100m, C3 at 7,700m). Non-technical by 8,000m standards. Fixed ropes maintained by leading expedition teams. Most permits.
Southwest Pillar22%
Technical alternative. Rarely attempted — fewer than 15 attempts in the database. For experienced alpinists seeking a more demanding line. Joins the standard route near the summit.

The Northwest Face route’s non-technical character should be understood in relative terms. Above Camp 3 (7,700m) the terrain steepens and the altitude effects become severe regardless of technical grade. Climbers who treat the approach as a “walk” often find the final 500m to the summit the most demanding terrain they have ever encountered.


04 — Guide Status

Guided vs. Independent

#guided

The 27-point gap between guided and independent Cho Oyu success rates is larger than on Everest and reflects a specific pattern: independent teams on Cho Oyu frequently compress acclimatization rotations and misjudge the October weather window. Guided teams enforce the two-rotation protocol and have established relationships with weather forecasting services that provide actionable guidance.

higher rate
Guided
55%
Commercial expedition programs, post-monsoon season
  • Tibet base camp logistics well established for commercial teams
  • Two-rotation acclimatization protocol enforced by all reputable operators
  • Camp setup and shared fixed ropes typical among season’s expeditions
  • Typical cost: $12,000–$25,000 all-in
Independent
28%
Self-organized teams, predominantly Northwest Face
  • China Tibet Mountaineering Association permit required
  • Fully self-sufficient above base camp
  • Higher rate of single-rotation attempts — the primary failure mode
  • Typical cost: $8,000–$15,000 all-in

05 — Experience Level

Success Rate by Experience Level

#experience

Cho Oyu’s experience-level data tells a clear story: the jump from 7,000m to 8,000m altitude is physiologically significant regardless of route difficulty. Climbers who arrive with prior 8,000m experience perform at nearly twice the rate of first-time 8,000m climbers, even on the non-technical Northwest Face.

First 8,000m attempt with prior 7,000m experience
28%
Cho Oyu is rightly described as “accessible” but extreme altitude at 8,000m still presents serious physiological challenges that 7,000m experience does not fully prepare for.
Prior 7,500m+ experience with high-camp overnights
44%
Sleeping above 7,500m is the strongest preparation for Cho Oyu’s summit push demands. Aconcagua plus a 7,000m Himalayan peak provides this preparation effectively.
Prior 8,000m summit on another peak
58%
Prior 8,000m experience is highly correlated with Cho Oyu success. The physiological adaptation and oxygen management skills carry directly across from other 8,000m peaks.
Multiple prior 8,000m summits
68%
Best-performing group. Experienced 8,000m climbers navigate Cho Oyu’s demands with strong consistency and manage oxygen systems and pacing with practiced efficiency.

06 — Turnarounds

Most Common Turnaround Reasons

#turnarounds

From The Himalayan Database expedition records and post-expedition operator reports, 2000–2025, Northwest Face.

01
Altitude illness (HACE) above 7,500m
The transition from 7,000m to 8,000m altitude is physiologically significant even on non-technical terrain. HACE onset between Camp 3 and the summit is the most common medical turnaround trigger on Cho Oyu
34%
02
Weather — post-monsoon jet stream closure
October windows can close rapidly as the winter jet stream descends over Tibet. Teams caught above Camp 2 when conditions deteriorate face serious cold and wind exposure with limited shelter options
28%
03
Exhaustion — underestimating 8,000m altitude
The summit day from Camp 3 (7,700m) is 8–12 hours at extreme altitude. Many climbers, particularly those on their first 8,000m attempt, deplete their reserves between Camp 2 and Camp 3 before the summit push
22%
04
Cold injury — Tibet plateau cold and wind
The Tibetan plateau produces extreme cold and sustained wind exposure on the upper mountain. Frostbite incidents on hands and feet are the most common non-altitude medical events requiring evacuation
10%
05
China permit and logistics issues
Chinese permit restrictions, liaison officer complications, and occasional border closure decisions have disrupted Cho Oyu expeditions in multiple seasons, forcing turnarounds before the mountain is even reached
6%

07 — Safety

Rescue Incident Frequency

#rescue

Cho Oyu has a moderate rescue profile relative to its altitude. Helicopter access is available to approximately 6,000m on the Tibet plateau approach, but high-camp rescues above that altitude require human evacuation over significant terrain. The relatively lower rescue rate compared to Everest reflects both the smaller permit pool and the stronger average experience level of Cho Oyu permit holders.

1 in 62
Climbers requiring assisted evacuation per season
1 in 180
Fatality rate among all permit holders
$35,000
Estimated evacuation cost from high camps

China’s periodic permit restrictions on the Tibet side add a unique logistical risk to Cho Oyu: in seasons where permit access is restricted or revoked mid-expedition, teams face significant financial losses in addition to the standard mountain risks. Expedition insurance that covers permit cancellation and early-season evacuation is advisable for all Cho Oyu teams.


08 — Climate & Trend

Historical Success Rate Trend (1990–2025)

#trend

Cho Oyu’s success rate has remained the most stable of any 8,000m peak over the past 35 years. The post-monsoon weather pattern on the Tibetan plateau is more consistent than the Himalayan monsoon, and the improving commercial logistics from the Tibet side have kept outcomes steady even as permit numbers have grown modestly. The primary variable affecting year-to-year rates is China’s permit policy — seasons with restricted access see fewer attempts and slightly higher rates from the more experienced self-selected teams that still obtain permits.

Overall summit success rate · Cho Oyu · all routes · 1990–2025
60% 50% 40% 30% Commercial logistics mature, rate stabilises (~2008) 1990 2000 2008 2025

Unlike Everest and Mont Blanc, where declining success rates reflect structural environmental changes, Cho Oyu’s plateau since 2008 is a positive stability story. The improving Tibet-side commercial infrastructure and the consistently experienced permit holder pool have kept the success rate at the highest level of any 8,000m peak in the database. The primary future risk is regulatory — China’s permit policy on the Tibet side remains unpredictable.


09 — Planning

What These Numbers Mean for Your Planning

#planning

The four decisions most correlated with success on Cho Oyu

🗓
Complete two full acclimatization rotations before your summit push. This is the single strongest predictor of Cho Oyu success in the data. Teams that attempt the summit after a single rotation to Camp 2 underperform those with two rotations by 18 percentage points. The extra rotation costs 5–7 days and is the highest-return investment on this mountain.
📅
Target October 1–20 for your summit push. The post-monsoon stabilization in early October is the sweet spot. Teams that delay past October 20 face rapidly increasing jet stream wind exposure as winter descends on the Tibetan plateau. Arrive at base camp by mid-September to complete two rotations before the window.
Use Cho Oyu as your first 8,000m peak — but build proper preparation. Cho Oyu and Manaslu are the two best first 8,000m objectives. Prior experience on a 7,000m+ Himalayan peak with high camp overnights is the minimum practical preparation. Do not arrive at Cho Oyu with only a 6,000m summit as your high point.
🧅
Plan your oxygen strategy from the start, not as an afterthought. Most guided teams use supplemental oxygen above 7,500m. Independent teams attempting Cho Oyu oxygen-free have dramatically lower success rates — 18% vs 44% for oxygen-supported teams. If you are considering oxygen-free, ensure your experience profile justifies the attempt.

10 — Continue Planning

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