The Scale of the Problem
Overcrowding on Everest has transformed from a logistical inconvenience into a documented safety hazard. The entire viable summit window is typically just 5–10 days in May, forcing hundreds of climbers to attempt the summit simultaneously. All commercially-guided teams receive weather forecasts from the same providers and tend to target the same 24–36 hour window.
- Spring 2024: approximately 900 climbers were on Everest’s slopes — the highest number ever recorded at that point.
- Spring 2025: an estimated 851 climbers summited successfully, making it the third-busiest season on record.
- 2019: a short weather window forced queues at the Hillary Step area that contributed to at least 4–11 deaths from exhaustion, oxygen depletion, and exposure.
Above 8,000 meters, standing still is as dangerous as climbing. A 90-minute queue at the Hillary Step depletes supplemental oxygen, drops core temperature, and impairs cognitive function — all at the altitude where the body is already failing. Every minute of delay in the death zone has a measurable physiological cost.
Primary Bottleneck Zones — South Route
There are five distinct choke points on the Nepal South Col route where traffic can stall. Each has a different character and level of risk.
Shifting seracs and crevasses force climbers through a single route maintained by the Icefall Doctors. Ladder crossings can queue 15–30 minutes. Highest objective hazard of any bottleneck zone.
Steep blue ice with a single fixed-rope line running the full 900m height gain. Overtaking another climber is nearly impossible. Slowdowns propagate the entire length of the face.
Night-time start congestion. All teams depart Camp 4 targeting the same summit window, typically 12–2am. The first two hours above the Col can become a slow procession.
Extreme terrain narrowing — only one climber can pass at a time. This is where 90–120 minute queues have been documented. All delay here occurs above 8,700m in the death zone.
A knife-edge snow ridge between the Hillary Step and the summit. Any slowdown causes a full-column backup. In 2024, a cornice collapse here killed two climbers and left two more missing.
Following the 2024 Hillary Step cornice incident, Nepal’s 2026 regulations now mandate separate ascent and descent fixed ropes through the Hillary Step area. This reduces head-on traffic conflict but does not eliminate the altitude hazard of waiting in position above 8,700m.
The Hillary Step: Then, Now & 2026
What It Was
The original Hillary Step was a 12-meter near-vertical rock and ice face at approximately 8,790 meters — the final serious technical obstacle before the summit. It required genuine rock climbing technique and forced climbers into single file because the feature could only be negotiated one person at a time.
What the 2015 Earthquake Changed
The April 2015 Nepal earthquake (magnitude 7.8) restructured the terrain at the Step. Post-2015 reports and photographs showed what had been a defined rock face transformed into a mixed snow, ice, and debris slope. The current consensus: the rock step is gone or deeply buried. What remains is a steep 45–60 degree snow slope — still difficult, still dangerous, but differently so.
2026 Status
- The terrain is a 45–60 degree snow slope with loose debris and an unstable cornice above the Kangshung Face.
- Queues of 90–120 minutes have been documented here during peak summit windows in 2024 and 2025.
- Dual fixed lines (separate ascent and descent ropes) are now required under 2026 regulations.
- GPS tracking and RECCO reflectors are mandatory — partly to assist recovery if another cornice event occurs.
- Government rangers monitor route conditions throughout the season.
The 2024 Cornice Collapse
On May 22, 2024, a soft cornice overhanging the Kangshung Face near the Hillary Step collapsed under the weight of a long queue of climbers. Several fell but were stopped by fixed ropes. The incident resulted in four deaths or disappearances.
| Climber | Nationality | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Paul Paterson, 40 | British | Fell in collapse; body never recovered |
| Pastenji Sherpa, 23 | Nepali | Fell in collapse; body never recovered |
| Cheruiyot Kirui | Kenyan | Missing from same incident; search abandoned |
| Nawang Sherpa, 44 | Nepali | Missing from same incident; search abandoned |
The collapse was directly linked to the weight of a long summit queue overloading a cornice at a narrow section. This was not a weather event — it was a crowding event. The incident drove the 2026 dual fixed-line requirement and reinforced Nepal’s push for GPS monitoring of all climbers above Base Camp.
The Oxygen Math
Most Everest climbers use supplemental oxygen above Camp 3 or Camp 4. Understanding exactly how a queue depletes your supply is one of the most critical pieces of safety planning you can do before summit day.
| Flow Rate (L/min) | Cylinder Duration | Cost of a 90-Min Queue | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 L/min — sleeping | 7–9 hours | ~17% of supply consumed standing still | Low |
| 2 L/min — climbing | 5–7 hours | ~21–25% consumed in the queue alone | Moderate |
| 3 L/min — summit push | 3–4 hours | 37–50% consumed standing still — critical | High |
| 4 L/min — emergency | 2.5–3 hours | Any significant queue is potentially fatal | Critical |
Climbing speed on the descent is typically 30–50% lower than on ascent. A climber who depletes half their oxygen waiting in a queue at the Hillary Step may not have enough supply to descend safely. The queue does not only affect your summit bid — it affects your survival on the way down.
The North Side Option
The Tibet (North Col) route sees significantly fewer climbers than the Nepal south side and offers a meaningfully different crowd profile for climbers who can access it.
| Factor | South Side (Nepal) | North Side (Tibet) |
|---|---|---|
| Annual permit cap | No formal cap (historically 300–400+ teams) | ~300 permits (enforced) |
| Typical climbers per season | 600–900+ | 100–200 |
| Client-to-Sherpa ratio (2025) | 1.4:1 | 0.76:1 |
| Main technical crux | Hillary Step / Cornice Traverse | Second Step at 8,611m (fixed ladder) |
| Base camp access | Trek from Lukla (~10–14 days) | Vehicle access — simpler logistics |
| Access reliability | Stable — consistent permit process | Variable — Tibet border rules can change |
For climbers who qualify and can navigate Tibet access requirements, the north side reduces bottleneck exposure significantly. The route has its own serious hazards — higher winds, more exposed high camps, and more technical terrain above 8,000m — but queue-related death zone delays are far less common.
Tactical Advice: Managing Crowds
Experienced climbers and guides have developed consistent strategies for navigating the crowding problem. These are not comfort measures — they are safety measures.
Timing Strategy
- Leave Camp 4 earlier than most teams — being 30–60 minutes ahead of the main wave significantly reduces queue time.
- Monitor what other operators are doing; if all teams depart simultaneously, you will queue.
- In 2025, teams that waited for the secondary May 18–19 window faced fewer climbers than the first wave.
- Consider targeting the second weather window of the season rather than the first and busiest.
Decision Protocol
- Agree in advance with your guide on turnaround criteria — time, oxygen level, and physical state.
- Commit to those criteria before leaving Camp 4, not while standing in a queue at 8,700m.
- If a queue forms and your oxygen reserve drops below the pre-agreed threshold: descend.
- Experienced guides say the correct answer to a 90-minute queue at the Hillary Step is almost always: turn around.
Operator Selection
- Ask: “What do you do when there’s a queue at the Hillary Step?”
- Operators willing to skip or delay a summit window due to crowds are demonstrably safer.
- 2024 and 2025 data confirms operators who waited for calmer conditions had stronger safety records.
- A lower-cost operator may lack the experience to hold clients back from a dangerous queue.
Oxygen Planning
- Carry at least one more cylinder than your operator’s standard allocation.
- Agree with your Sherpa on a specific oxygen level at which you turn around — non-negotiable.
- Know your flow rate, cylinder capacity, and estimated descent time before leaving Camp 4.
- Extra cylinders cached at the South Summit are standard in premium expeditions — ask if yours does this.
The best expedition outcomes from 2025 ended not at the summit, but with safe descents, good decision-making, and enough oxygen margin to get home. Everest rewards strong climbs, but punishes climbers who treat the summit as the endpoint rather than the halfway point. Every minute of queue time makes the descent more dangerous — plan accordingly.